DFFL: A CHART PARTY

dfflchartparty1

Welcome back, ya’ll.

Ya’ll? Who tf are you?

Don’t bold me, bro.

God dammit…

What’re we doing today?

Well, bolded alter-ego, I’ve been curious about how accurate Yahoo’s projected points are and finally found enough motivation to put it to the test.

Last time we did this you didn’t have any charts…

Yeah, well the last time we did this your (our?) #ally went on to put up 200+ points in a win and avoid the embarrassment of being the worst team in DFFL history.

Those poor damn Rats.

He’ll get ’em next year.

So you have charts today, I presume?

I have enough charts to throw a god damned CHART PARTY.

CHART PARTY

So, for those of you who are still with us, I recently went through and charted each teams’ actual points and projected points each week. From there I calculated the percentage of points yielded for each team using (act pts – proj pts)/proj pts x 100 to give us a percentage relative to zero for each week. League and team averages were calculated as you will see later in the post. I don’t believe this tells us much besides how accurate Yahoo’s projected points can be and how well teams perform relative to them.

/snoring zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

arthurfist

So the first chart I’d like to share is pretty generic but quite useful. It is each teams’ average actual points and average projected points along with the average percentage of points yielded.

 Average Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
Deppen 181.30 189.04 -4.43%
P. Miller 176.78 175.05 0.97%
Will 173.91 183.03 -4.62%
Shontz 175.95 178.30 -1.00%
Z. Miller 164.26 178.21 -7.30%
Rat 169.46 173.30 -1.85%
Curlis 162.03 177.20 -8.18%
Brumbaugh 154.66 166.94 -6.21%
Avg 169.79 177.63 -4.08%

Only one person outpaced their projected points?

I was a little surprised by this as well. But that -4.08% translates to a 95.92% accuracy rating across the board for the starters’ projected points in our league. Pretty damn good if you ask me. And when you look a little closer, over half of the league was well below the 5% mark. Bravo to Hermano for being the lone manager to clear their projected points this season.

How abou…

And I even have this beautiful chart to share that goes along nicely with the previous one.

That’s what daddy’s talking about. Keep going…

I hate you all of the time.

But I’ll oblige…how about each teams’ charts?

Yasssssssssssssss

Deppen
Week Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
1 198.30 185.77 6.74%
2 140.65 183.62 -23.40%
3 234.15 193.20 21.20%
4 201.35 194.44 3.55%
5 161.40 191.07 -15.53%
6 163.40 178.37 -8.39%
7 189.95 182.52 4.07%
8 162.70 186.36 -12.70%
9 115.35 163.50 -29.45%
10 183.55 199.45 -7.97%
11 204.85 193.47 5.88%
12 184.85 208.11 -11.18%
13 167.30 189.51 -11.72%
14 230.45 197.20 16.86%
Avg 181.30 189.04 -4.43%

P. Miller
Week Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
1 169.15 174.08 -2.83%
2 150.55 171.96 -12.45%
3 200.85 179.82 11.70%
4 202.95 181.82 11.62%
5 146.75 180.96 -18.90%
6 164.90 173.71 -5.07%
7 140.60 166.67 -15.64%
8 193.90 164.07 18.18%
9 209.45 169.06 23.89%
10 138.70 169.36 -18.10%
11 176.20 177.18 -0.55%
12 177.75 181.34 -1.98%
13 173.15 180.90 -4.28%
14 230.05 179.72 28.00%
Avg 176.78 175.05 0.97%

Will
Week Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
1 176.95 172.61 2.51%
2 208.20 189.66 9.78%
3 153.90 187.09 -17.74%
4 146.35 197.13 -25.76%
5 227.05 168.16 35.02%
6 191.90 192.50 -0.31%
7 210.85 186.95 12.78%
8 140.35 184.57 -23.96%
9 132.25 185.78 -28.81%
10 176.00 173.78 1.28%
11 161.70 183.92 -12.08%
12 171.90 182.33 -5.72%
13 153.30 177.49 -13.63%
14 184.00 180.43 1.98%
Avg 173.91 183.03 -4.62%

Shontz
Week Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
1 158.15 193.73 -18.37%
2 168.60 180.08 -6.37%
3 200.60 183.74 9.18%
4 156.95 191.87 -18.20%
5 174.40 183.91 -5.17%
6 146.95 184.84 -20.50%
7 196.65 166.74 17.94%
8 157.85 172.84 -8.67%
9 145.40 150.98 -3.70%
10 171.25 155.39 10.21%
11 198.45 175.92 12.81%
12 256.35 187.06 37.04%
13 164.95 184.44 -10.57%
14 166.80 184.69 -9.69%
Avg 175.95 178.30 -1.00%

img_0840-e1513838289286.jpg

Z. Miller
Week Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
1 124.35 186.17 -33.21%
2 190.30 187.70 1.39%
3 109.75 182.19 -39.76%
4 138.35 184.71 -25.10%
5 211.05 179.82 17.37%
6 169.05 181.09 -6.65%
7 124.10 179.74 -30.96%
8 163.80 172.93 -5.28%
9 198.80 163.48 21.61%
10 177.95 163.48 8.85%
11 215.15 171.67 25.33%
12 146.15 183.69 -20.44%
13 171.95 183.92 -6.51%
14 158.85 174.34 -8.88%
Avg 164.26 178.21 -7.30%

Rat
Week Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
1 111.30 183.50 -39.35%
2 142.40 186.73 -23.74%
3 187.65 175.32 7.03%
4 207.55 188.45 10.14%
5 217.15 172.48 25.90%
6 159.15 158.22 0.59%
7 213.20 185.00 15.24%
8 158.15 187.25 -15.54%
9 148.95 172.10 -13.45%
10 151.70 157.27 -3.54%
11 189.80 156.48 21.29%
12 132.80 170.71 -22.21%
13 191.25 168.81 13.29%
14 161.35 163.88 -1.54%
Avg 169.46 173.30 -1.85%

Curlis
Week Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
1 159.90 182.72 -12.49%
2 158.65 191.49 -17.15%
3 212.70 181.31 17.31%
4 135.20 194.09 -30.34%
5 157.30 174.38 -9.79%
6 156.45 188.48 -16.99%
7 137.30 179.37 -23.45%
8 156.45 159.91 -2.16%
9 164.25 158.66 3.52%
10 158.85 166.14 -4.39%
11 186.95 175.23 6.69%
12 147.15 178.66 -17.64%
13 225.70 175.58 28.55%
14 111.50 174.78 -36.21%
Avg 162.03 177.20 -8.18%

Brumbaugh
Week Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
1 139.25 186.93 -25.51%
2 191.85 188.15 1.97%
3 161.15 193.07 -16.53%
4 129.20 191.07 -32.38%
5 169.75 154.10 10.16%
6 143.05 177.36 -19.34%
7 129.65 163.13 -20.52%
8 147.55 157.99 -6.61%
9 139.75 152.32 -8.25%
10 151.90 143.74 5.68%
11 159.95 155.53 2.84%
12 152.30 159.86 -4.73%
13 148.85 167.83 -11.31%
14 201.05 146.12 37.59%
Avg 154.66 166.94 -6.21%

That’s a lot of charts; I need a cig.

You and me both.

🚬

…much better…

So what’d you think?

I don’t know, I’m just along for the ride, you tell me.

I mean, it is what it is. Obviously the projections aren’t all that accurate on a per match-up basis, but over the course of the season, 96% isn’t too bad. I think it’s interesting how a majority of the line charts, both lines tend to follow a similar trajectory over the course of the season.

But you said the projections aren’t that accurate on a per match-up basis.

Well, they aren’t very good at predicting outcomes. But as the season wears on and it becomes more clear who are the studs and duds, I think Yahoo’s projections become a little bit more accurate.

I could go for another chart.

I still love you.

League Avg
Week Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
1 154.67 183.19 -15.31%
2 168.90 184.92 -8.75%
3 182.59 184.47 -0.95%
4 164.74 190.45 -13.31%
5 183.11 175.61 4.88%
6 161.86 179.32 -9.58%
7 167.79 176.27 -5.07%
8 160.09 173.24 -7.09%
9 156.78 164.49 -4.33%
10 163.74 166.08 -1.00%
11 186.63 173.68 7.78%
12 171.16 181.47 -5.86%
13 174.56 178.56 -2.02%
14 180.51 175.15 3.51%
Avg 169.79 177.63 -4.08%

Well, when you put it like that.

Yeah. Throw out that trash Week 1 and the season projection accuracy climbs to 96.79%. Back to my one comment about the projections getting better as the season progresses. The accuracy rating of the projections from Weeks 1-7 is 93.13% while the rating of the projections from Weeks 8-14 is 98.71% [flame emoji].

I kindly ask that nobody @ you.

I don’t think it works that way.

Well, bravo to Yahoo! for having pretty accurate projections over the course of the season. I bet you could use these numbers to do odds-making for the league.

Lololololol.

This has been a fun party. We should do it again sometime.

Thanks, bolded alter-ego. Are you leaving?

Well, I mean, I had this thing to go to later, and it seems like you don’t have any other CHARTS…

What if I told you I had three more?

I don’t know…

God dammit, it’ll be quick. You’re the one always asking for the damn CHARTS.

Fine, three more CHARTS.

These are pretty self explanatory. The metrics used are obviously % of points yielded so don’t let there be any confusion about the true best performance of the season.

Enjoy.

Most Accurate Projection
Rank Manager Week Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
1 Will Week 6 191.90 192.50 -0.31%
2 P. Miller Week 11 176.20 177.18 -0.55%
3 Rat Week 6 159.15 158.22 0.59%
Worst Performance
Rank Manager Week Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
1 Z. Miller Week 3 109.75 182.19 -39.76%
2 Rat Week 1 111.30 183.50 -39.35%
3 Curlis Week 14 111.50 174.78 -36.21%
Best Performance
Rank Manager Week Actual Pts Proj Pts % Pts Yield
1 Brumbaugh Week 14 201.05 146.12 37.59%
2 Shontz Week 12 256.35 187.06 37.04%
3 Will Week 5 227.05 168.16 35.02%

BRUMrodKOWSKI WINS THE CHART PARTY!!!!!

.

.

.

I’m logging off now.

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