2017 DFFL Playoff Preview

2017 dffl playoff picture

Welcome, to the big show.

Hard to believe, but yes, the Playoffs are here. What a season it has been. I’ll be by later to review this magical season, but for now I want to focus on the larger issue: previewing the Playoffs.

Let’s get right into it.

#1 Scooter’s Squad

vs.

#4 The Donatello

#1 Scooter’s Squad #4 The Donatello
Record 10 – 4 7 – 7
Points Scored 2,538.25 (1st) 2,463.35 (3rd)
Points Against 2,320.80 (3rd) 2,378.10 (5th)
Points Delta (+) 217.45 (+) 85.25
Avg Pts/Week 181.30 175.95
All-Time Record 7 – 2 2 – 7
2017 Results
Week 1 W – 198.30 L – 158.15
Week 11 W – 204.85 L – 198.45

REMATCH TIME.

Last year Michael got his first taste of the Playoffs, matching up against, you guessed it, Deppen. That one ended 187.44 – 167.46 in favor of Scooter’s Squad.

And woo boy, this year’s tale of the tape ain’t pretty for the Don. If there’s anything that Donnie has shown this season (and others), is that despite relentless injuries and setbacks, he’ll find a way to compete.

Deppen’s DFFL finishes go as:

2014: 1st
2015: 2nd
2016: 1st
2017: TBD

Theoretically, he should finish 2nd this year, however he’s never not made the Championship. As much as I’d like to see someone other than Deppen and Will in the finals, it is hard to bet for the upset here.

BUT. What if I told you that over the last 4 weeks of the season, these two teams have averaged almost identical scores?

Deppen: 196.86 (stdev: 27.14)
Shontz: 196.39 (stdev: 42.91)

Now, the funny thing about averages, is, that sometimes they can blur the lines a little. That’s the case here, considering the last four weeks includes Donnie’s 256 spot. Thus, I’ve included their standard deviations above as well. Deppen has been far more consistent with his scoring lately, but don’t count out Shontz’s big-play-ability.

It’d be cliche to say that this one will come down to the QB matchup of Ben vs. Brady. But anytime two QBs face off on the field, and in the DFFL, it’s a hell of a lot of fun. And while the QBs will undoubtedly play a big part, the real thing to keep an eye on will be the RBs. Can Kamara bounce back and give Michael a big game? Certainly hosting the Jets, you’d think that’s plausible. If Shontz can get some solid RB production, and hope that McCoy/Bell are limited some, then this one will be snug.

Prediction: Scooter’s Squad

Shontz will keep it within respectable reason, but I think he’ll come up just short. Despite the weather forecast, I am expecting New England / Pittsburgh to be a shootout, and that doesn’t bode well for The Donatello with Scooter’s killer-B’s. Scooter marches on to his 4th Championship appearance (unfortunately).

#2 HeHateMe30

vs.

#3 Willenium Force

#2 HeHateMe30 #3 Willenium Force
Record 8 – 6 8 – 6
Points Scored 2,474.95 (2nd) 2,434.70 (4th)
Points Against 2,350.60 (4th) 2,211.80 (1st)
Points Delta (+) 124.35 (+) 222.90
Avg Pts/Week 176.78 173.90
All-Time Record 1 – 7 7 – 1
2017 Results
Week 6 L – 164.90 W – 191.90
Week 10 L – 138.70 W – 176.00

Another Playoff rematch!

Patrick and Will faced off in the first DFFL Playoffs in 2014. Will was the victor then 170.65 to 145.71. Obviously Will has made the Championship every year, so despite an up and down season for Billy’s boys, a Herm upset here would still be, well, an upset.

This has been a bounce-back year for HeHateMe after finishing a disappointing 5-9 last year, missing the Playoffs for the first time.  He has been a steady, consistent performer all season long. HHM30 has the 2nd-best scoring standard deviation the season at 27.62. That’s honestly not really fair to even call it ‘2nd-best,’ because technically Brumbaugh’s standard deviation is ‘better’ (21.12) – despite the fact that Herm’s scoring average is a full 22.05 points better than Brum’s. Patrick will look to ride that consistency into his first Championship appearance.

I took a look at Will’s season performance, and let me tell ya, it’s somethin’. Take a look at Will’s scoring averages:

First Half: 187.89
Second Half: 159.93

It’s like he swapped his team out for another in the second half of the season. I had to represent it in a chart to showcase:

chart (1)

Kinda looks like the Willennium Force logo, eh? Fitting.

Bill returned to first-half form this week, posting a 184. He’ll need to ride that re-found momentum to knock off Patrick this week. HeHateMe has only beaten Will exactly once in the DFFL, so it’s hard to call for him to win, but I’ll be damned, that’s exactly what I’m going to do.

Prediction: HeHateMe30

I think Bill’s inconsistency finally nips him. Bill also had the least points scored against him all season, and maybe of all time (Donnie can confirm). Herm has practiced patience and consistency, and I think that helps him here. The obvious elephant in the room is no Carson Wentz this week. Which is a massive concern. My BOY Poppin’ Bortles is tentatively scheduled to get the unprecedented Playoff spot-start this week for Herm. And I just love it. I just don’t know that PB5 can carry the team like Wentz did all year.

(full disclosure, I put in a waiver claim for Bortles this week)

Will on the other hand, has some juicy matchups. Brees home against the Jets is scary. I said it in the first preview that QB is a cliche linchpin, but QB is too important between these two.

To really have a shot this week, Herm needs Bortles to be good-Blake, and hope that the Jets can limit the Brees damage. If those two things happen, I think Herm wins. If they don’t, I gotta guess Bill. I think the former does happen, and HeHateMe30 gets to dance in the finals for the first time.

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