Week 6: The Weekly Roundup

Week 6 is in the books, and I think the only thing we’ve learned thus far this season, is what we already knew coming in to 2016.

Will is still really good, and Rat still really sucks.

Outside of that, it’s just one big ass shit storm.

Let’s take a look at what happened in Week 6 and see if we can’t unpack some of this shit.

the-week-that-was

THE WEEK THAT WAS

HeHateMe30 166.52 – Emmanuel in Space 161.73

Deppen started the year a well-documented 0-2. From there he ripped off three wins in a row to put himself squarely back in Playoff contention. Losing to Patrick is by no means a death knell to Deppen, but it certainly didn’t help, that’s for damn sure.

Last week I wrote that young Patrick is dead-set on making the Playoffs, and in order to do so will need to win matchups like beating Grant. I expected he wouldn’t break the 170-barrier, but I sure as hell didn’t expect him to get the victory while doing so. Hats of to him for holding down Space.

As the Steelers go, as goes Scooter, or so they say. Ben went down, Brown was held in check, but Bell still was Bell. Despite massive games from his three RB’s started, everyone else was very pedestrian for Emmanuel. Save for Antonio Brown, that WR corps is starting to look very sketchy. The loss drops Deppen to 3-3 on the year, with a leg up on the other 3-3 teams on points.

HeHateMe had a fairly low-scoring week, but still got the victory, which is all that matters. No one really shit the bed, and everyone had pretty decent enough games to put just enough distance between he and Deppen. After two sub-150 weeks, Patrick has now won two in a row and looking to push himself into Playoff contention.

BRUMrodKOWSKI 167.37 – Slob On My Cobb 138.99

Here we have another sub-170 winner. Hot damn that’s gross.

I have been saying for weeks I’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop, and losing to Brum (in convincing fashion) isn’t just a shoe dropping – it’s a massive frozen piece of space shit falling from the sky. Won’t spend a lot of time on my squad as my best performer was Randall Cobb, who caught his lone TD from Aaron Rodgers…who I was playing against. Lovely.

On the Brum side of things, he had a pretty good week, by his standards. A few guys blew the hell up, and a few guys put up some real duds. That’s pretty much how it goes in KOWSKI land. Rodgers had an okay game, but throw in the huge Gronk and TP11 games, and he did enough to get by me.

I’ll get to this more later, but the teams vying for Playoff contention are going to be amazing to watch. Every game has Playoff value to it, and this was no different. The loss for me gives me two losses in three weeks, and drops me to 4-2 on the year, maintaining my 2nd place (for now). For Brum, he moves to 3-3 on the season, remaining in 5th.

Willenium Force 241.95 – Dead Rats Walking 182.92

I am not going to rag on Rat too much, simply because I do it every week and I have not had enough coffee yet. In quintessential Rat fashion, he puts up a decent figure, only to get blown tf out by almost 60. Putting up 182+ against Will isn’t going to get it done, unless you catch him with some byes or a random off week. So Rat can’t be too upset about this one.

For Will, it’s just business as usual, posting a 200+ week for the 4th time in 6 weeks. It was only a matter of time before OBJr got his shit together, and my gawd did he ever in a big way this week: 8 receptions, 222 yards, and 2 TD’s, good for 45.20 points. Christ. Add to that another 27.90 points from Julio Jones, and we haven’t even talked about Drew Brees’ game. 34 completions, 465 yards, 4 TD’s, 84.25 points. Add James White’s 26.60 points…aaand he just beat Rat without having to look at the remaining 6 people started.

Will obviously keeps hold of #1 with the victory, moving to 5-1 on the year. Rat’s loss keeps him in his comfortable sewer of 8th. Rat will now look to see who is worse, he or Curlis, in this week’s Battle of the Basement.

The Donatello 203.30 – The Popcorn Playas 161.40

These two teams have very different stories to their years through six weeks. To start the year, I didn’t expect Curlis to be battling it out at the top, but I really didn’t see him at 1-5 through six weeks. For Shontz, I actually did expect him to compete at the top of the table, just didn’t really see it after he lost Decker, Keenan, and AD.

The Donatello is just absolutely grinding right now. It certainly helps that he was 2-2 during TB12’s 4-game suspension, and upon the original Throw God’s return, has won two in a row. There’s no one in the league, not even Will, that has a better QB/WR/RB Big-3 than Shontz has right now. Tom Brady, Amari Cooper, and David Johnson; when they’re on, Donnie is going to be a tough out each week. Just this week those three combined for 129.70. Last week they had 141.00. Like I said, tough out.

The Playas continue their downward spiral this week, and have found a nice home in the basement with Rat. Curlis could really do me a favor and take care of business against Rat this week to keep him pinned down.

Don moves up a spot into 3rd with the W, taking him to 4-2. Curlis holds down 7th, moving to 1-5.

waiver wire

WAIVER WIRE WINNER

With injuries and byes rolling along, the waiver wire has been pretty hot recently. Despite lots of movement, there’s an easy pick for last week’s winner.

The Donatello: Cameron Meredith, WR Chicago

Through four weeks he did nothing. Then, in Week 5 he went off for 26.60 points on 9 receptions, 130 yards and a TD. Shontz scooped him up off the wire last week, and plugged him right into his starting lineup for Week 6.

Meredith didn’t live up to his Week 5 total, but came damn close, posting 23.30 points for The Don, who gave him the starting nod. Meredith had 11 catches for 113 yards last week, and over his last two weeks has 20 catches on 25 targets. It’ll obviously be hard to keep that pace, but right now Shontz has to be riding high (ha) and is clearly last week’s Waiver Wire Winner.

pythag numbers

PYTHAG NUMBERS

Alright, so things are really starting to heat up with the data. Some fun stuff is ahead, and the season is just steamrolling on. Let’s take a look at this week’s chart:

Team PF PA ExpecWin% Wins ExpecWins WinDiff
Willenium Force 1255.21 1108.50 0.661 5 3.964 1.036
Slob On My Cobb 1090.61 1016.07 0.594 4 3.563 0.437
The Donatello 1054.34 931.87 0.660 4 3.959 0.041
Emmanuel in Space 1074.31 1072.14 0.503 3 3.016 -0.016
BRUMrodKOWSKI 1053.54 1034.13 0.525 3 3.149 -0.149
HeHateMe30 1014.61 1168.26 0.319 3 1.917 1.083
The Popcorn Playa$ 1070.07 1140.64 0.415 1 2.491 -1.491
Dead Rats Walking 1009.30 1150.62 0.331 1 1.987 -0.987

Some notes:

  • The first thing that jumps of the chart to me, is Patrick, yet again. Dude faced an obscene amount of points early on, which has regressed some, but has been able to hold his own. The numbers hate his team, and show he is a full win ahead of prediction. He’s just grinding right now as well, having won two in a row.
  • Will has faced a decent amount, but has clearly scored the most in the league. He’s clipping along as well a full win ahead of schedule.
  • Another interesting one is Curlis. He’s scored more points, and faced less than Rat, therefore the numbers predict he should be almost a half-win better than Rat. They’ll play each other this week, so it’ll be interesting to see how those numbers shake out.

I was looking at this chart, and something caught my eye that I wanted to look into further. This isn’t necessarily Pythag related, but it’ll fall under here as this is the best heading for it.

If you look at all the teams not-named Willenium Force, there’s a very eye-catching trend in the points scored for each team. If you can’t see it, well, you’re an idiot. I’m just kidding. But not really.

Each non-Force team has scored more than 1,000 points, but under 1,100 points. This is where things get fun. Remember, I’m removing Will as an outlier. Below is a breakdown of some of the data:

Average points for: 1052.40

Median points for: 1054.34

Standard deviation: 30.39

Coefficient of variation: 2.89%

Alright, let’s unpack.

As you can see for such large figures, the standard deviation is barely over 30. The spread is ridiculously even. Also, the average and median are so damn close, which again, reiterates how evenly spread the data is around the mean.

Lastly, the coefficient of variation is 2.89%! That is absurd. The data varies so minimally, it’s quite fascinating, honestly.

In order to prove my point even further, our non-Will points scored is a damn-near-perfect bell curve. See for yourself:

image

This brings back the point I made earlier about each week having huge Playoff implications. There’s 6 people that are right now in the thick of things (sorry, Rat/Curlis). 6th place is only 2 games back. It’s anyone’s ball game right now, and the data just goes to show how evenly spread the league is right now, save for one outlier.

So, as I was reading through the data this week, and saw the numbers, I immediately knew it was going to be amazing. There ya have it, I am sure y’all don’t care, but that absolutely fascinated me as I was pouring through this.

future

THE WEEK AHEAD

Week 7 is here, the halfway point of the DFFL season. Last week I wrote that I couldn’t believe we were already at Week 6, and now after this week we’ll be halfway home. What a time to be alive.

As is every week, this week doesn’t disappoint with the matchups.

#1 Willenium Force (5-1) vs. #6 HeHateMe30 (3-3)

On paper, #1 vs. #6 doesn’t necessarily get your motor running. However, don’t be surprised to see this one be a little closer than we may anticipate.

There’s some interesting matchups for these two, but the one I’m keeping an eye on will be Brees in KC. Not that I’m really going out on a limb or anything, but in my opinion, Brees will make or break Pat’s chances. That Kansas City defense gave up 5 TD’s to Ben Rapelishagert earlier this season, but also intercepted Ryan Fitzmagic 6 times. So, I’m very interested to see what they do against Brees and Co.

Luck is having a nice turnaround season back to being Good Andrew Luck, so he’ll be pivotal to HateMe’s chances come Sunday.

Also, who is Jordan Howard?

#2 Slob On My Cobb (4-2) vs. #4 Emmanuel in Space (3-3)

If Grant would ever get his thumb out of his ass and give us a GotW, as promised, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better one than this.

I’ve lost two of three, and sit here waiting for it to all fall down on a weekly basis. Deppen had won three in a row before stalling out against Pat last week. This one is yuge for both parties.

Ben may be hurt, but in his absence is Philip Rivers, in a dome, against Atlanta’s 2nd worst pass defense. Sweet. Michael Thomas is all of a sudden a thing, and Brees is clicking with him. It’ll be interesting to see if both Willie Snead and Michael Thomas get the nod in our matchup, who will be the better shittier WR start.

My starlet of the first two weeks, C.J. Anderson, has since become Rat’s C.J. Anderson. Which is to say, he sucks. He gets a home MNF matchup against Houston’s awful (29th ranked) rush defense. Which is to say, he’ll lay an egg.

I believe this one comes down to the RB matchups. If Deppen’s score at will like they normally do, I got nothin’. However, if one trips up a little, it may open the door slightly for me.

#3 The Donatello (4-2) vs. #5 BRUMrodKOWSKI (3-3)

Another matchup with big time Playoff implications. The Don is off to a bit of a surprising 4-2 start after weathering his seasonal storm of injuries. Brum has been hanging around a bit, nabbing some sick ass wins here and there.

It’s hard to not like Michael in this one, given the roll that his Big-3 have been on recently. We’ll see if DJ31 can keep it up against an elite defense, as the Cards host the Seahawks Sunday night.

Full disclosure, I don’t like Brum’s team this week. I will probably eat crow when he blows up, but I just don’t see it. He’s consistently started two Cleveland Browns, which is saying something. Rodgers appears to be in a funk, he’ll need to have a big game tonight on TNF to give KOWSKIs a chance.

#7 The Popcorn Playas (1-5) vs. #8 Dead Rats Walking (1-5)

This one’s for all the marbles, boys.

Curlis and Rat, head-to-head for the Battle of the Basement.

The Playas haven’t topped 170 since his league-high Week 1. Despite all the shit Rat gets, and trust me, that shit is deserved, he has quietly put together three good weeks (for him). Now, he’s lost all three of them, but still he is averaging 176.59 over his last three matchups. Compare that to Curlis, who is averaging 160.50 over his last three.

In case you were wondering, at press time, Rat currently has: Jacquizz Rodgers, Frank Gore, and Double TE loaded up to start. No offense, but fucking wooooof.

If even half of The Playas show up to play, look for DRW to be RIP’d.

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