Week 3: The Weekly Roundup

Week 3 is in the books in the DFFL, and what another weird week it was. Oddities in the DFFL are commonplace, but I’m not sure we’ve seen this strangeness, ever.

Let’s talk about what happened this week.

the-week-that-was

THE WEEK THAT WAS

matchup

gameflow

Let’s start with number one. Will came into the week on top of the table, and despite a wee bit of a scare from Brum, comes out of the week unscathed. As evident by the chart above, Brum actually held a lead heading into MNF. With Will having Brees, Julio, and Ingram playing Monday, it was hard to see Brumbaugh holding onto his lead.

Julio did next to nothing, but Brees was Brees, and Will cruised to an almost 20-point victory. I said it in the GotW post that I thought it’d come down to RB play, and not QB play, but I was sort of wrong. Brees put up 20+ more points than Rogers, and really was the difference maker, throwing for 376 yards on 36 completions, adding 3 TD’s. That’s, um, pretty damn good. In his two games against the Falcons last year, Brees threw just 2 total TD’s. Tossing 3 Monday was a back-breaker for Ty.

Interesting to see 0’s on each side. Nick Novak, Will’s kicker, didn’t score. Nor did Gronk for Brum.

Will moves to 3-0 on the year, and faces me next. While Brum drops to 1-2, and gets Curlis this week.

matchup

gameflow

Watching MNF you couldn’t help but get the feeling everyone was pulling for Matty Ice to blow the doors off. Deppen’s team has had great success in the first two years of the DFFL, so to see him stumble out the gate to an 0-2 record was not only surprising, but welcomed. So when Curlis took a roughly 60 point deficit into Monday, it left hope that he could knock Deppen down to 0-3 with a big game from Matt Ryan.

It wasn’t that Ryan had a poor game, he did ‘ight. It was that Atlanta’s RB’s went fuggin bonkers and really took the wind of the sails of anyone hoping Ryan would have a huge game. Unfortunately for the Playas (and the rest of the league), Matty’s efforts fell just short, and Curlis dropped the matchup by about 13 points.

Space got the W, however it wasn’t pretty. Grant currently sits 6th in both the standings, and points scored, averaging just 166.25 per game. For perspective, that’s just about 7 more points per contest than RAT. Woof.

matchup

gameflow

This one was back and forth to start, and then came down to Sunday night. With Ezekiel Elliott and Dan Bailey playing Sunday night, it was going to be hard for Mike to hold off Rat to move to 6-0 in his career against him. A las, Elliott had a good game and Rat was able to get that victory over Shontz that has evaded him so much.

It’s a tough one to swallow for Donnie, as he now drops to 1-2. Injuries have always been an issue for The Don, and this year is no different. In the table these two now sit 7th and 8th, naturally with Rat bringing up the rear. This week’s contest certainly proved that, as they were the combined lowest scoring contest.

They’ll both play people just a few spots ahead of them this week. Rat will take on Deppen, and Shontz takes on Patrick. Pivotal weeks for all as the 1-2 teams will look to break the pack up in the next few weeks.

matchup

gameflow

Honestly, not much to report here. Thursday got off to a really good start for Patrick. Nuk had a pretty pedestrian game, but Blount dropped 105 yards and 2 TD’s for 24.50 points. However, Thursday as we come to find out, was the lone bright spot for HeHateMe. Once Sunday’s games started it was all but over from there.

Won’t bore you with the details, but the 246.05 I posted was the second-highest this season (Curlis’s 268.60 in Week 1 is #1). And the 98.94 spread was the largest margin of victory this season.

waiver wire

WAIVER WIRE WINNER

Week 3’s Waiver Wire Winner was fairly easy to decide. I’ll get to that in a second, but I think there were a few interesting pickups of note:

  • HeHateMe30 – Isaiah Crowell, RB Cleveland
    • Didn’t have a great week last week, but Hue appears to be dedicated to establishing the run, so he definitely has some good value.
  • Dead Rats Walking – Victor Cruz, WR New York
    • Rat thinks this is really sweet, but it’s really not. He’s okay now, but he has been consistently average thus far – averaging 11.17 points per contest. Unsurprising, that’s pretty good for someone on Rat’s team.
  • Slob On My Cobb – Jamison Crowder, WR Washington
    • I picked up Crowder last week, and quite frankly I’m pretty stoked about him. Loved him coming out of college, and really like how they’ve used him thus far this season. Sneaky little pickup for me.

With all that said, none of those are the winners this week. This week’s winner is:

  • Willenium Force – Minnesota DEF
    • Will actually scooped them up off the waiver wire, and plugged them into to start against Brum. It was a great decision as they only scored 47.64 points in Week 3.
    • I was surprised when I was looking at the numbers and noticed Kansas City, who I started, scored 47 points but was 2nd in the league in DEF points. Come to find out Minnesota barely outscored them.
    • Really a solid pickup not only for this week, but weeks to come. That defense looks legit.

pythag numbers

PYTHAG NUMBERS

With three weeks of data under our belts now, we’re starting to see some solid work with the numbers finally. Obviously as the season progresses we’ll be able to paint a clearer picture, but for now we’re trending in the right direction.

Week 3’s updated Pythag table:

Team PF PA ExpecWin% Wins ExpecWins WinDiff
Willenium Force 624.52 565.63 0.630 3 1.889 1.111
Slob On My Cobb 598.64 485.93 0.754 3 2.261 0.739
The Popcorn Playa$ 589.56 570.01 0.545 1 1.635 -0.635
BRUMrodKOWSKI 542.29 524.97 0.543 1 1.630 -0.630
HeHateMe30 534.17 674.74 0.222 1 0.667 0.333
Emmanuel in Space 498.76 565.65 0.337 1 1.012 -0.012
The Donatello 495.91 452.58 0.620 1 1.861 -0.861
Dead Rats Walking 479.53 523.87 0.384 1 1.151 -0.151

Some interesting stuff happening with this week’s data. Let’s take a look:

  • Will technically would be labeled as ‘most lucky.’ That’s mostly because his large points scored. What’s interesting about that, is given his higher points against his expected wins are actually lower than mine. It basically shows he’s ‘clutch’ in tight games, able to win despite teams scoring decently against him.
  • Mine is slightly different, in that I have faced a fairly low total points against (2nd lowest in the league), so it’s easy to see why I’m 3-0. The numbers show my expected wins as highest in the league, which makes sense comparatively to my PF/PA. It’ll be fun to see how this shakes out over the next few weeks as my team regresses back to its shitty self.
  • Another one I want to highlight is Donnie. What another rough year already for him. Injuries pile up, but he still battles. The numbers show his team is better than what their 1-2 record indicates, expecting him to have 1.86 wins. We’ll see if he can turn it around in the W column next week when he squares off against HeHateMe.
  • Speaking of Patrick, the numbers give him an expected wins of 0.667. That’s rough, but it’s easy to see why. He’s had a shit ton of points dropped on him, 100+ more than anyone else – which is staggering.

future

THE WEEK AHEAD

Another Weekly Roundup, another week already under way. Listen, I’m trying to keep the WR going every week of the season, so when it gets done isn’t that much of concern to me. Thursday Night Football generally sucks, so if the previous week’s WR isn’t done until Friday, so be it.

Week 4 opens as we make the turn for the quarter-pole already of the season. Hard to believe, but after this week we’re well on our way to the meat of the season.

Onto the Matchups:

#1 Willenium Force vs. #2 Slob On My Cobb

Writing “#2” next to my name is still taking some getting used to. I don’t foresee it staying that way, but with a two-game lead on the 1-2 pack, it’s guaranteed to stay that way regardless of this week’s outcome.

Which, this week’s outcome for me I can’t see anything other than a big fat L. Sure, this is a #1 vs. #2 in the standings situation. It’s also #1 vs. #2 in points score. It’s a big damn game for me. Which is exactly why my team will shit the bed. There’s no question Will’s roster is the best in the league, IMO. And with Dez out, and some shitty matchups, I can’t even call this GotW material, it’s gone be a bloodbath.

Miller’s Accurate Prediction: Willenium Force 228 – Slob On My Cobb 167

#3 The Popcorn Playas vs. #4 BRUMrodKOWSKI

Keeping in the same spirit as the aforementioned #1 vs. #2 matchup, this one is a #3 vs. #4 matchup. Big week for both squads as both have Playoff potential.

Brumbaugh’s team is real butt. He nabbed a victory from Rat in Week 1, which doesn’t say much. Especially when you consider Rat put up a blistering 133.16 that week. Watch out. Brum’s coming off a 190+ week last week, but he’s got some pretty nasty matchups to navigate. Add to the fact that his ace-in-the-hole so far this year, Marvin Jones, is nicked up, it’s hard to see him putting up a big number this week. Also, he’s starting fucking Brock Osweiler, so there is all ya need to know.

The Playas set the high-mark for season points in Week 1, and it’s been downhill from there, dropping two in a row – and scoring less each week. After that 268 spot he hung in the opening week, he’s averaged just 160.48 points over the last two weeks. AJ Green has already given him a big boost on TNF, so he’s opened up nicely.

Miller’s Accurate Prediction: The Popcorn Playas 210 – BRUMrodKOWSKI 174

#5 HeHateMe30 vs. #7 The Donatello

Donnie just can’t get out of his own way with the injuries yet again. Given the state of his team, it’s hard to see him battling out of the 7th spot hole he’s dug himself into. It’s not fair to pile on, so I’ll be brief.

Week 4 could be real bad for The Don. TNF saw him start Double-Bengals-RB-Set, which proved to be no bueno. The duo of Hill and Gio combined for just 14.30 points. Not a good start. He’s got some matchups that very well could be shootouts, but ya never know. Starting DJax against Cleveland seems to be an easy 35 points.

HeHateMe on the other side of the ball, has some intriguing matchups as well. In the Shontz vs. Brother battle this week, we get QB vs. QB in Luck vs. Poppin’ Bortles. That one could get wild, so hold on to your pants. Watch for those two to put up large numbers.

Ultimately, I just don’t see enough points on the board for Mike. I think Pat pushes forward on this one, and moves into the driver’s for 4th in the table.

Miller’s Accurate Prediction: HeHateMe 190 – The Donatello 162

#6 Emmanuel in Space vs. #8 Dead Rats Walking

I decided to save the worst for last.

We all know what Rat’s team is, trash. So I’ll breeze thru this. In Week 2 he actually broke the 185 point barrier, which is a big deal. I guess I shouldn’t throw stones, as I only ended up beating him by single-digits, but whatever, a win is a win.

Dead Rats currently sit dead-last in both the standings, and in points scored. DRW is averaging a balmy 159.84 points per contest thru three weeks. While Scooter is under-performing early on this year, it’s hard to see him misstepping against this stepping stone of an opponent.

Miller’s Accurate Prediction: Emmanuel in Space 188 – Dead Rats Walking 160

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