Week 2: Weekly Roundup

roundup

We’re officially off an running this DFFL season. The table certainly looks nothing like I’d have imagined thru two weeks to start the season, but that is what makes FF so damn fun. The table will also likely look completely different come Playoff time, but for now, let’s all just savor Deppen being 0-2 for as long as we can.

Let’s cut the small talk and cut right to the chase.

the-week-that-was

THE WEEK THAT WAS

The Donatello (198.84) vs. Emmanuel in Space (131.35)

It may not have been the matchup of the week in terms of closeness, but hot damn if it wasn’t the biggest news-maker. Deppen has been in the Championship two years running, and on paper has one of the most stout DFFL squads, however, he got his dick sanded by Donnie.

Yahoo! had Space favored by just shy of 6 points headed into this one, but lordy that was not the case. The 67.49 point margin of victory was easily the largest this week, as well as this season. While Mike enjoyed success across pretty much every position, Grant saw every starter, save for QB, fail to reach 15 points. That’s no bueno.

A sneak Corey Coleman play lead the way early on Sunday, and Mike never looked back. Coleman is quietly averaging 24.7 yards per reception, and while he now has Throw God Cody Kessler as his QB, that shouldn’t hinder his big-playability. Mike is just toying with the DFFL Browns fans, waiting in the weeds to rape.

On the other side of this coin was Deppen’s team shitting the bed, posting the lowest point total in the DFFL so far this season. Antonio Brown finished the day with 4 catches for 39 yards, and that’s just fucking fantastic. Grant moves to 0-2 on the year, and has to be wondering wtf is going on.

HeHateMe30 (177.57) vs. BRUMrodKOWSKI (160.09)

These two managers came in at #3 (Brum) and #5 (Pat), and exit this week’s matchup with Pat at #4 and Brum #6. Clearly this was an important mid-table matchup for both men.

It was a fairly pedestrian week for both sides, but saw a few big games from some randos. Luck and Rodgers both had shitty weeks by their standards, but each side was buoyed by someone like Delanie Walker for Pat, or Marvin Jones for Brum.

This matchup also saw the presumptive #1 and #2 defenses squaring off, and that didn’t disappoint. Pat started Carolina who posted 28.30, and Brum played Denver to the tune of 33.04. In case you were wondering, those point totals were the largest non-QB players for each side. Pretty gross, IMO.

Ty actually took a 4.52 point lead into Monday’s game, however with Alshon and Langford still to play, Pat quickly erased that deficit and went on to take the W. Each manager now moves to 1-1 on the year.

Willenium Force (195.53) vs. The Popcorn Playas (168.90)

Man, The Playas really gave it their all, but a few eggs really did them in. Curlis saw big weeks by Olsen (24.20), L Fitz (20.10), and a huge week by everyone’s-favorite-RB-Matt-Forte (32.90). But, it wasn’t damn near enough.

I said it last week and it really is true, Will’s absolute gaping-asshole-hole at RB flat out doesn’t matter. He posted 195.53 points this week, despite getting just 18.20 points from the RB position. The Force could have not started RB’s this week, and still beaten 3 teams in the league (Curlis, Brum, & Deppen).

Will was also aided by 34.28 DEF points from Arizona. So while Curlis had a few bright spots, it really didn’t matter. Will blew the doors off this one, and easily pushes forward to 2-0, while Curlis levels out to 1-1 despite leading the league in scoring thru two weeks.

Slob On My Cobb (190.74) vs. Dead Rats Walking (186.99)

I am not being selfish here, but I will say that I saved the best for last this week. In what pundits were calling a rematch of the Toilet Bowl, these two sides completely flipped the script. Not only did both sides finish 3 and 4, respectively, in points scored this week, the matchup itself was a nail-biter to add to the drama.

Both sides had a pretty mixed bag this week, seeing big numbers from QB’s and having some other large games, but mixed in with some duds. Cam and Kelvin set the pace for Rat, but CP3 wasn’t ready to concede the loss for my side. Add in a nasty-ass 15 point kicker performance from Justin Tucker, and all of a sudden my team was right in the thick of things headed into the SNF game.

There’s not a whole lot better than a matchup coming down to essentially one vs. one. That’s what we had in the Sunday night game in Randall Cobb going against Eddie Lacy. Obviously adding to the drama was the fact that Eddie Lacy had been re-traded back to Rat in the offseason, and the fact that C.J. Anderson had already posted 18.30 points earlier Sunday. Cobb didn’t exactly set the world afire, but did enough to push the lead just slightly. Of course, in perfect Rat-fashion, Eddie Lacy did next to nothing, and finished with a whopping 5.00 points. It was the most fitting way for Rat to lose this one, and in the process, moves to 0-2 while I sneak to 2-0.

waiver wire

WAIVER WIRE WINNER

Quite honestly, not much to report here this week. By my count, I don’t see any waiver/FA pickups that were plugged into starting roles this week. That’s not surprising given we’re only in Week 2.

Some interesting pickups this week, though. Will grabbed Tevin Coleman, who is in a timeshare in Atlanta, but has averaged 15.9 points thru two weeks. Devonta Freeman out-touches him, but if Coleman takes over full-time, that could be the RB Will desperately needs.

Mike also went out and hit the wire, grabbing former DFFL 1st-rounder Nelson Agohlor, and picked up Mike Wallace. Couple of decent WR options that have looked pretty alright this year.

pythag numbers

PYTHAG NUMBERS

Two weeks of data is better than one, but we’re not quite to where we have a bunch to work with just yet. Regardless, in the table below we’re already starting to see the formation of some trends.

Team PF PA ExpecWin% Wins ExpecWins WinDiff
Willenium Force 410.28 371.32 0.631 2 1.261 0.739
Slob On My Cobb 352.59 338.82 0.553 2 1.106 0.894
The Popcorn Playa$ 437.50 405.02 0.602 1 1.204 -0.204
HeHateMe30 387.06 428.69 0.366 1 0.733 0.267
The Donatello 350.67 293.20 0.723 1 1.446 -0.446
BRUMrodKOWSKI 347.98 310.73 0.647 1 1.295 -0.295
Emmanuel in Space 333.77 413.59 0.240 0 0.481 -0.481
Dead Rats Walking 320.15 378.63 0.289 0 0.578 -0.578

As I mentioned previously, the more data we get the more clear these numbers will shake out. The WinDiff column is sort of a ‘luck factor’ of old. It operates on the assumption that 0.0 would be middle of the road, not lucky or unlucky. The further you differ each way, increases your luck (or lack thereof).

It is interesting to look at someone like Donnie, who has a league-low 293.20 points against, but only has 350.67 points for – middle of the road. Despite being 1-1, our numbers show that Mike actually leads the league in expected wins, which is due in large part to that low PA figure.

Funny to see Deppen’s expected Win% at .240. He’s faced an average of 206.80 points thru the first two weeks, which is brutal. Rat is sort of in the same boat, however he’s faced less points, and scored less as well.

future

THE WEEK AHEAD

Week 2 is officially in the books and we now set our sights on Week 3. And my god it’s going to be a doozie. We have a few rivalry matchups to add fuel to the always hot DFFL fire.

Let’s take a look and see what Week 3 has in store for us.

#1 Willenium Force vs. #6 BRUMrodKOWSKI

Everyone’s favorite rivalry gets renewed early this season. Will is off to his usual fast start, setting the pace at 2-0, and currently 2nd in points scored. Bobbi hasn’t had the same success, currently sitting at 1-1 and 6th in points.

Brum may be without Gronk and Charles again, and looks way over-matched to even be in discussion for a W. A win for Ty this week would be Miracle On Ice-esque. Will could start Brees and his WR’s and probably have a puncher’s chance at this one. Could be a blood-bath this weekend.

Miller’s Prediction: Willenium Force 202 – BRUMrodKOWSKI 164

#5 The Donatello vs. #8 Dead Rats Walking

Not only is this another solid rivalry, but this one could have a huge impact early on in the mid-table race. Mike currently sits in 5th at 1-1, as well as 5th in points. He is coming off a near-200 point week in a victory over lowly Emmanuel in Space. A win keeps him in good standing for Playoff contention, but a slip-up against the DFFL’s doormat, and he could be on wrong side of Playoff contention. It’s still early, but The Don can’t afford a misstep.

Mike looks to take his DFFL career record to 6-0 over Rat. Not that anyone should be surprised, but man, that’s funny Rat is defeated against Donnie. Dead Rats Walking narrowly missed the win last week over me, while putting up a decent point total. But, that is a one-game thing I think, he’ll fall back to his normal 130-150 range this week.

Miller’s Prediction: The Donatello 187 – Dead Rats Walking 145

#2 Slob On My Cobb vs. #4 HeHateMe30

Brothers? Check. Top-4 matchup? Check.

This one is yet another one on a great slate of Week 3 matchups. Forget about the whole being brothers thing for a sec, and take a look at the standings. I am somehow in 2nd, off to a shocking 2-0 start. I am 2/3 of the way to my 2015 win total, thru two damn weeks. I may be in 2nd, but I’m only in 4th in points scored – thus why the Pythag Numbers show me as the luckiest team in the league right now.

Brother Pat continues to hang around Playoff contention as he’s done since the league’s birth. Currently in 4th at 1-1, and 3rd in points scored. I said it last year, and again earlier this year, if things start to click for this guy, he could make some real noise in the league.

This is a pivotal match for both of us. I look to move to what would be an unheard of 3-0, and Pat looks to climb into that 2-3 range. Should be yet another big time matchup this week, but I’m just waiting for the other show to drop for my team.

Miller’s Prediction: HeHateMe30 174 – Slob On My Cobb 165

#3 The Popcorn Playas vs. #7 Emmanuel in Space

Couple of things to unpack here real fast. Typing ‘#7’ in front of Deppen’s team feels fucking great. Secondly, if Deppen were to ever complete his alleged Game of the Week post he said he’d do, I’d think this would be the pick.

This one may not have the historic rivalry aspect, or be as close to each other in the standings, but man this one is huuuuge for both sides. Deppen could very easily slip to 0-3 and would be in an incredibly dicey spot thru just three weeks. While on the other hand, Curlis could continue his hot start and move to 2-1, with a good chunk of points under his belt.

The Playas currently sit in 3rd at 1-1, but are #1 in points scored. Space sits 0-2 and only Rat has scored less points than him. Wow, make sure you read that last part twice.

Miller’s Prediction: The Popcorn Playas: 184 – Emmanuel in Space 181

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