Week 2 Playoff Predictions

nflgambling

Week 2 is in the books as Zachary has already done a magnificent job of covering here. With that comes more data and updated Playoff Predictions and Odds. We saw 4 teams reach the 200 point summit in Week 1 and 0 teams in Week 2, a bit of regression for everyone this week. And Deppen sitting at 0-2. God damn that was a fulfilling victory.

I plan on releasing championship odds after Week 4 along with the initial Power Rankings of the season. Playoff predictions and odds will still be included but this piece is just to hold us over until then. Patrick placed $20 on himself to make the playoffs at 1-1 odds this past week and looks to be a great value bet given this week’s odds. Being the league bookie, I encourage each of you to consider placing wagers at some point this season.

On to the good stuff…

Part I

Week 2 Playoff Results 2014:

In 2014 the four playoff teams went a combined 6-2 through Week 2 with Will and Pat getting to 2-0 and Grant and Zach at 1-1.

Week 2 Playoff Results 2015:

In 2015 the four playoff teams also went a combined 6-2 through Week 2 with Will and Grant getting to 2-0 and Pat and Brum at 1-1.

Based on this data, it is safe to assume 2-0 teams are a 100% lock to make the playoffs while 1-1 teams have a 50% chance. A team has never made the DFFL Playoffs following an 0-2 start. This will be the storyline of the season to follow seeing as Grant is sitting at 0-2.

Part II

Following up on Part II from last week where we compiled overall Week 1 records from 2014-2016, here are overall records through Week 2 from the same time frame.

’14-’16 Week 2 Record

  1. Will 6-0
  2. Pat 4-2
  3. Grant 3-3
  4. Zach 3-3
  5. Shontz 3-3
  6. Curlis 2-4
  7. Brum 2-4
  8. Rat 1-5

Will being 6-0 is impressive and not surprising. I am 3-0 in Week 2 after going 0-3 in season openers. And last but not least, Rat is 0-3 in Week 2. Week 3 going to be big though?

Part III

And now for some updated Playoff Predictions and Odds. First I will provide predictions following Week 2 and then will present playoff odds for all 8 teams.

Based on Week 2 results and historical data, the following four managers will make the playoffs in 2016:

  1. Will
  2. Zach
  3. Curlis
  4. Pat

Week 2 Playoff Odds: odds bolded next to team with last week’s odds in parenthesis

  1. Will 1-4 (1-4)
  2. Pat 1-2 (1-1)
  3. Curlis 1-2 (1-1)
  4. Zach 1-1 (3-1)
  5. Grant 1-1 (1-3)
  6. Shontz 3-2 (7-3)
  7. Brum 3-2 (3-2)
  8. Rat 11-2 (4-1)

Please contact me for any wagers or inquiries.

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