Hello, friends. Week 1 is officially in the books. I do also realize that Week 2 officially kicked off last night. Listen, I’ve been busy, so deal with it.
Week 1 brings back such great feelings. It’s exciting. It’s full of optimism. Then the games happen. For half the league it was a good week, and the other half are one game in the hole. Let’s take a look at what happened.
THE WEEK THAT WAS
Willenium Force (214.75) vs. Emmanuel in Space (202.42)
Here we are, the Broncos and Panthers, squaring off in Week 1 in the highly anticipated rematch. This one did not disappoint.
Cool Brees’s 400+ yard game, and 4 TD’s will be the show-stopper, but let us not forget Spencer Ware’s nasty ass getting Will 33.90.
When if Jamaal Charles comes back healthy, Will’s team will be an interesting watch, relegating Ware to the bench. We know RB is his Achilles’ heel, just not sure it’ll matter that much with Brees and his WR corps. Will for sure be interesting to watch pan out.
Pretty par for the course for these two, a solid, close, 200-point-a-piece matchup was to be expected, and that’s what we got. The Champ proved victorious, yet again.
The Popcorn Playas (268.60) vs. HeHateMe30 (209.49)
I gotta be honest, I did NOT see this one coming. IMO, Curlis’s team looked like it was a bottom-4 team, and I’m sure they may iron out to be, but in Week 1 them playas came to play.
HeHateMe has dreams of a 3-peat for Playoff appearances, and that coveted 3/4 spot may be on the line with a Week 1 misstep. Unfortunately, there’s just jack shit he could’ve done. Yahoo! actually had Pat favored by 10 points. Guess they didn’t factor in AJ Green going for 12 catches, 180 yards, and 1 TD. Hey, Zach, good trade! Fuck me.
Tough one to swallow if you’re Pat, but he’ll look to get back on track against Brum in what will be another pivotal early-season matchup. Curlis on the other hand takes on the reigning champ, but as I write this is 32.90 points to the good after (apparently everyone’s favorite RB) Matt Forte went 3 scores last night.
BRUMrodKOWSKI (187.89) vs. Dead Rats Walking (133.16)
This was more or less a battle of two pillows smacking each other. Predicted by most to finish 7th and 8th, respectively, they did not disappoint. Rat posting a score in the 130’s is not only true-to-form, but just fantastic in Week 1. Brum came out swinging and put up a decent number, one for sure Rat was not going to be able to match.
The Playas vs HateMe’s matchup may have gotten the headlines, and rightfully so, but this matchup here quietly was a shellacking. Rat sneakily got his ass kicked, to the tune of a 54+ point beatemdown. A typical start for Rat, while Brum looks to improve on his surprising finish from last year.
Slob On My Cobb (161.85) vs. The Donatello (151.83)
My team started 0-4 last year, so to steal a victory in Week 1 is huge for my side. I predicted Donnie would battle it out for a Playoff spot, so losing to me certainly doesn’t help. Posting 161 and getting the victory is pretty nasty, especially considering the only other team I would’ve beaten last week was Rat – that’s bad.
Mike losing Keenan to another ACL just sucks. Amari did his thing to help the cause, but a couple of eggs from Bennett and Peterson did him in. I survived a couple eggs from Dez and Fleener, but CJA had himself a huge week which ultimately could’ve been the deciding nail.
WAIVER WIRE WINNER
Not a lot of movement on the Waiver Wire the past week, however there obviously was one BIG add.
Will picked up Spencer Ware last week, dropping oft-injured Dion Lewis. Plugged him in at RB2, and he ripped off 33.90 points against Scooter. Considering the margin of victory was less than 13 points between he and Deppen, I’d say that’s a pretty solid pickup. Not sure the long-term value of Ware without Charles, but getting a victory off a waiver pickup is always solid. Good move, Bill.
I’ve been calculating these numbers for 2 full years now, and they’re damn fun for me to mess with. Obviously we know that sample size plays a huge part in this, so you can sort of toss aside this week’s data. Still fun to look at, but it’ll only get more and more interesting as the season progresses and we get more data on hand.
|The Popcorn Playa$||268.60||209.49||0.791||1||0.791||0.209|
|Slob On My Cobb||161.85||151.83||0.585||1||0.585||0.415|
|Emmanuel in Space||202.42||214.75||0.421||0||0.421||-0.421|
|Dead Rats Walking||133.16||187.89||0.136||0||0.136||-0.136|
Table primer: pretty self explanatory for the most part. The ExpecWin% column is the calculation I’ve come up with as an expected winning chance, not too dissimilar to Bill James’ Pythagorean Expected Wins. Obviously the more points you score, the more likely you are to win, however points against plays a large part in that as well (see: HeHateMe30 this week). It’s interesting to look at and, as we get more behind it will be even more fun.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Half the league sites 1-0, while the other half sits 0-1. Sounds simple but for those that are 0-1, losing this week is not good. Starting 0-2 is not the death of the season, but my lawd Playoff chances will be looking grim.
Mike put up a good post yesterday with a breakdown of some Playoff data, which gives some good insight about where we’re headed. With that in mind, let’s look ahead to
next this week’s matchups.
#1 The Popcorn Playas vs. #2 Willenium Force
It doesn’t get much better than an early-season #1 vs. #2 matchup. Albeit a surprising #1 team in Curlis’s squad, it’s still juicy nevertheless. Will took care of business against last season’s runner-up in Scooter, while Curlis took Pat to the woodshed. It’ll be an intriguing one to see if Curlis can keep pace and knock Will off his throne for a sec, while Will will look to take back the #1 spot with a victory. Get yo popcorn ready.
#3 BRUMrodKOWSKI vs. #5 HeHateMe30
Another juicy matchup this week. These two battled it out last season for 3rd and 4th so an early-season rematch will add to the drama at the onset of this season. HateMe’s team was dealt a tough hand, losing to Curlis’s 268-pointer last week, while posting a 200-point week himself. Brum took care of business against Rat last week. For the record, not that it matters, but last week Pat would’ve beaten Ty by 21.6.
#4 Slob On My Cobb vs. #8 Dead Rats Walking
Well, it pains me to say this, but this is likely a battle for 7th and 8th. My team will piece together some nasty weeks and steal a few wins, and same can be said for Rat. I just don’t see more than 6 wins between the two of us.
Good thing I have his 1st Rounder next year so I’ll be nice and loaded at the top half of the Draft. And yes, for those scoring at home, I’m looking ahead already.
This week we get to play everyone’s favorite game, Who Has The Shittier Team!?
#6 Emmanuel in Space vs. #7 The Donatello
This should be a fun one. Space is coming off a 200-point week, albeit a loss to Will. While The Don laid an egg against me, barely breaking 150. Mike’s team is capable of exploding, but I am not sure if it will be enough to take down Deppen, whose team is as consistent as we have in the league.
Eli gets New Orleans at home, which means he should clear 50 points by the 3rd quarter. Mike has some interesting matchups on paper, so it’ll be fun to watch if those can pan out. We’ve seen Deppen come from behind (see: Year 1), but starting 0-2 certainly would not be the way he would’ve expected things to go.
Good luck to all in Week 2. I’ll be back again (earlier) next week with the Roundup.