We here at DFFL HQ are notorious for starting things we have no plans to finish. So obviously I would like to start a new weekly segment this season, “Week X Playoff Predictions”. The goal of this segment is to tide us over for the first four weeks of the season until we get some god damn Power Rankings, and to also provide some insight into each team’s playoff odds.
Being the league bookie, I’ve taken it upon myself to update this weekly with new playoff odds based on new data from the previous week. These are real live odds that I am willing to take bets on. Mind you these are playoff odds and not championship odds so keep that in mind before you complain or place a bet. Not that anyone will. If you guys want championship odds as well or instead, let me know and I will be happy to supply those.
Being the first segment, I went ahead and did a little research both for myself and for this post. The sample size is tiny (8 games) but I wanted to see what the playoffs odds were for 1-0/0-1 DFFL teams in history. Now, to the good stuff.
Week 1 Playoff Team Results 2014:
In 2014 the four playoff teams went a combined 3-1 in Week 1 with Grant, Will and Pat all winning and Zach dropping the 1st matchup.
Week 1 Playoff Team Results 2015:
In 2015 the four playoff teams went a combined 3-1 in Week 1 with Grant, Will and Pat all winning and Brum losing the 1st matchup.
Based on this data, it is safe to assume 1-0 teams in DFFL have a 75% chance of making the playoffs while 0-1 teams have a 25% chance.
This makes things interesting for this season seeing as both Pat and Grant dropped their Week 1 matchups. Either DFFL bucks the trend and two 0-1 teams make the playoffs, or one of these guys will be on the outside looking in while the other enjoys a third playoff trip.
Just for the sake of fun and new historical data, I went ahead and compiled the overall Week 1 records for each DFFL Manager. After doing so I was reminded that I’ve missed the playoffs by one game each of the past two seasons and will more than likely do so for a third year in a row.
’14-’16 Week 1 Record
- Will 3-0
- Grant 2-1
- Pat 2-1
- Zach 1-2
- Brum 1-2
- Curlis 1-2
- Rat 1-2
- Shontz 0-3 😦
And now time for some DFFL Playoff Predictions and Odds. First I will provide playoff predictions following Week 1 and then will present playoff odds for all 8 teams.
Based on Week 1 and historical data, the following four managers will make the playoffs in 2016:
Week 1 Playoff Odds: (odds are listed in parenthesis)
- Will (1-4)
- Grant (1-3)
- Pat (1-1)
- Curlis (1-1)
- Brum (3-2)
- Shontz (7-3)
- Zach (3-1)
- Rat (4-1)
Please contact me for any wagers or inquiries.