Week 1: Weekly Roundup

This year we’ll have a new weekly series for y’all. Last year we did a few different posts, and spread them out throughout the week in small chunks. This year, we’ll have the same general idea, but consolidate them a little. We’ll pull most everything into this all-encompassing recap. We’re calling it, The Weekly Roundup. Here you’ll find a little bit of everything: some stats, some reviews, some previews, etc.

Mike still plans to do a separate (but equal) post for the Power Rankings. And Grant will (maybe) still do the Game of the Week (GotW). I’ll maybe sprinkle in some stuff here and there, but most everything I did last year will find its home here.

So, without further ado, I give you the first Weekly Roundup of the year:

the-week-that-was

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Week One. Rivalry Week. Whatever you want to call, it’s in the books. Some teams got off to the right foot, while others stumbled out of the gate, hard. Let’s start by taking a quick peek at the matchups, and some of the highlights:

Whitner Is Coming (146.27) vs. HeHateMe30 (170.61)

Not exactly a world-beating performance from HeHateMe, but the elder Miller went out and laid an egg on Opening Day. A curious decision to go ahead and start WWZPM18 clearly backfired as he was only able to muster 29.65 points, or just 59% of his projected point total (PPT). Dez going down also was a big sting to the hopes of Whitner not only for this matchup, but the weeks ahead as well. At least Travis Kelce had a big week, posting 29.6 points, and this awesome TD celebration:

kelce gif

On the HateMe side of the ball, nothing really of import, save for an otherworldly performance from St. Louis DEF. Thankfully for Whitner Is Coming the defensive scoring was amended this offseason, otherwise STL DEF may have beat him by themselves.

A big day from DeAndre Hopkins helped hide a goose-egg from Sammy Watkins, and a subpar day from Luck in Buffalo. Subpar for Luck, meaning 240+ yards, and 2 TD’s, but still.

One last thing. I’m too lazy to go back and check, but I have to imagine Pat getting 0 points from his kicker was the first time in a long time that’s happened. Wasn’t like he left the spot empty, started the K, but just got nothing.

The younger Miller takes Round 1 to start the year. We’ll see who can take Round 2 in a few weeks. By that time the elder Miller may have hit the reset button…

Willenium Force (197.27) vs. Razzy’s Rat Gang (192.66)

The retooled Rat Gang actually put together a really solid opener, just came up a little short (story of his life). No one really blew the doors off, but he just got solid performances top-to-bottom. A return TD, and three fumble recoveries by Seattle DEF put up a big DEF # for him. Plus, Romo posting 23.29 points over projection (POP) was huge for the Gang. Romo also made a nice ‘effort’ on a ‘tackle’, which is good for Rat so he didn’t kill himself. 

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Rat went into the nest posting a solid number, 192.66, prior to Monday’s games. Unfortunately for him, the Force still had three people to play on MNF, including one Julio Jones. Every Browns fan’s what-could-have-been wet-dream, Jones put up 29+ points…at half. He finished with 38.10, good for 17.31 POP.

Brees was Brees, and put up 50+, easily. Jarvis Landry had a nice game, finding the endzone to go with 8 catches. And probably the biggest surprise of Will’s day, Mark Ingram getting 20.20 points. What’s interesting about that is, the former Heisman winner only had 24 yards rushing, but caught 8(!!) balls for 98 yards. Ridiculous for him. Dude caught 13% of his career receptions on Sunday.

It came down to the wire in the 4th quarter of the MNF matchup in Atlanta. Ultimately, the Force prevailed by a narrow margin. This one will sting for the Gang, especially given the injuries he already had, go ahead and add T.Y. to that list. The hits keep cumming.

The Donatello (198.42) vs. The Popcorn Playa$ (170.54)

Donnie Ray got TB12 back from suspension, and he didn’t miss a beat. 4 TD’s, and 288 yards later, TB12 set the pace Thursday against the trashy Pittsburgh secondary to the tune of 63.50 points. Sunday, Keenan had 15 catches. FIFTEEN. Also, getting 25+ from Miami D was an added bonus. Oh, and this was all before AD took the field for the late MNF game. Peterson went on to put up 8.20 points in his first action in over a year. Not exactly how he envisioned his return, I’m sure.

The Playa$ did their best to put up a fight, but in the end were just overmatched at every position. Forte tried to go HAM, rushing for 100+ in the first half and finishing with 141 rushing yards, good for 32.60 total points. Curlis also got a boost from Jets D, who faced the Browns. Naturally, the Browns decided to cough it up 5 times, 4 fumbles and an INT. Jets D got Curlis 29.04 points, which was 11.18 POP. Curlis left his dood Ameer on the bench, but it’s safe to say he won’t be riding the pine too long:

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Shontzie walked away with this one, and while it’s still super early, his squad looked really strong on Matchday 1. All told, it was a pretty nice way to start the year for The Donatello.

AhmadBRUMrod (150.59) vs. Emmanuel in Space (203.93)

GTG strikes again. In all fairness to GTG, this one was over before Brumshaw even had a chance. Given that Deppen starts 95% of the Steelers’ offense, and they played Thursday, he had a nice cushion heading into the weekend – 77.53 point cushion, to be exact. Antonio Brown was absurd, yet again, and just doing Antonio Brown things. 

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Ty closed the gap in the early games Sunday, but there was just too much firepower from Space to really even make a game of it. Most of Deppen’s guys were at, or around their projections. Eifert was the notable exception, dropping 32.4 points, good for 23.64 POP. He also got a dirty-ass 17 point effort from his kicker, Matt Bryant.

Jonas Brumrod’s bright spots were: Rodgers, Charles, and Gronk. That’ll be a theme for the entire season. It’s hard to win games when only 3 people are contributing, though.

Scooter claims the Week 1 largest margin of victory (LMoV), 53.34. He’ll face Miller and his pillow-loaded roster next week, so look for Dead Dog to get out to a fast 2-0 start, claiming LMoV for both contests.

waiver wire

WAIVER WIRE WINNER

Not much to report here. Only request put in this week was Team Brumrod. Claimed Bishop Sankey, who Rats5 had dropped for a kicker earlier in the week. Sort of a curious decision by the Gang, but whatevs.

Sankey went on to score 23.28…for Ty’s bench. Regardless, still a nice little grab as he’s likely to be the dude in Tennessee with TWest not looking all that hot this week.

SEASON POINTS BREAKDOWN

In this section we will be tracking each team’s points by position, both total and weekly average. Pretty simple and straight forward, but a good indicator of where you stand relative to the rest of the league at each position. I’m sure plenty of people will be appreciating this section come trade deadline time.

2015 Season Points Breakdown

2015 Weekly Points Breakdown

total standings

TOTAL STANDINGS

If you recall last year, I calculated our Total Standings. This was an idea stolen and sorta changed from Gramps’s old “Luck Factor” post he used to do. For those that aren’t familiar, it is basically trying to pin down who is good, and who is just lucky (looking at you, Will). 

I won’t get too crazy-into the methods used because it’s not all that relevant, but what it boils down to is looking at points scored on a given week, and factoring in who that person would beat for the rest of the league. For example, Scooter scored 203.93 points this week, the highest in the league, therefore he would have beaten everyone else. We calculate then “wins/losses” for that week, so Deppen would get 7 “wins,” and zero “losses.” So, Shontz gets 6 “wins” and 1 “loss” this week, since he was second-highest.  You do that for each person. Then, you divide the person’s “expected win total” by 7 (7 outcomes), to get a rough idea of expected wins. Then subtract expected wins from actual wins to get our “Luck Factor.” Make sense?

Anyways, I’ll calculate this again as the season goes on, and will post the table each week. I ran this week’s numbers, which are essentially irrelevant since it’s just one week, but I linked the table below just because.

Team Wins Losses TS W’s TS L’s Expected Wins Luck Factor
Whitner Is Coming 0 1 0 7 0.00 0.00
HeHateMe30 1 0 3 4 0.43 0.57
AhmadBRUMshaw 0 1 1 6 0.14 -0.14
Willenium Force 1 0 5 2 0.71 0.29
The Donatello 1 0 6 1 0.86 0.14
Emmanuel in Space 1 0 7 0 1.00 0.00
The Popcorn Playa$ 0 1 2 5 0.29 -0.29
Razzy’s Rat Gang 0 1 4 3 0.57 -0.57

pythag numbers

PYTHAG NUMBERS

Same sort of idea applies with the Pythag data. It’s essentially worthless to look at for just one week as sample size. But, just like last year, I’ll continue to crunch these numbers. I’ll post the below table each week, and try to make sense of it all in this section.

Team PF PA ExpecWin% Wins ExpecWins1 WinDiff
Whitner Is Coming 146.27 170.61 0.305 0 0.305 -0.305
Willenium Force 197.27 192.66 0.532 1 0.532 0.468
HeHateMe30 170.61 146.27 0.695 1 0.695 0.305
Emmanuel in Space 203.93 150.59 0.836 1 0.836 0.164
The Donatello 198.42 170.54 0.693 1 0.693 0.307
AhmadBRUMshaw 150.59 203.93 0.164 0 0.164 -0.164
The Popcorn Playa$ 170.54 198.42 0.307 0 0.307 -0.307
Razzy’s Rat Gang 192.66 197.27 0.468 0 0.468 -0.468

While it is just one week, it is funny to see Will as the luckiest, and Rat as the most unlucky. Maybe size really doesn’t matter?

future

THE WEEK AHEAD

With an overall fairly disgusting Week 1 in the rear view mirror, everyone can look forward to what Week 2 brings the league. Half of the league is tinkering with their lineups in hopes of advancing to 2-0 on the season, while the other half desperately prays to any and all gods for help avoiding the dreaded fantasy football death knell that is 0-2. This section will give a brief preview of each matchup, set a spread and O/U using Donnie Ray Sportsbooks™ lines, and give you an opportunity to make picks against the Don’s Spreads.

#4 HeHateMe30 (1-0) -8.5  vs. #7 AhmadBRUMrod (0-1) +8.5 – O/U 325.00

Young Patrick and his yung squad look to move to 2-0 and avoid an embarrassing loss to what looks to be the worst team in the league. HeHateMe30 has an advantage at every position save for TE so He should move to 2-0 barring a letdown. Bobbi Brumrod on the other hand looks to try to skank a victory anyway he can get it. Rodgers, Charles, and Gronk will get you points every week, but Jonas Brumshaw is going to need a few others to contribute to even think about pulling off the victory.

#1 Emmanuel in Space (1-0) -18.5  vs. #8 Whitner is Coming (0-1) +18.5 – O/U 350.00

This early season rematch of the 2014 Quarterfinals couldn’t come at a worse time for Whitner is Coming after losing Dez for up to 4-6 weeks with a broken foot, joining Arian on the injury report. Being the sport Whitner is, he’s scrapping and piecing together the best squad he can on short notice, so we’ll see what sort of number he can throw up this week. Anything above 180 or below 150 would not surprise anyone. Space meanwhile is looking to cruise to 2-0 as he’s this week’s largest favorite after setting the pace in Week 1 for the second season in a row.

#2 The Donatello (1-0) -2.5 vs. #3 Willenium Force (1-0) +2.5 – O/U 360.00

A battle between undefeated #2 and #3 in Week 2 is all you can ask for. Winner assuredly stays in 2nd with an outside chance at #1, loser gets to meddle with the other stinky 1-1 teams and worry about if they are a playoff team or not. Week 2’s closest matchup and spread says this should be a shootout and come down to the wire. More to come from this matchup later.

#5 Razzy’s Rat Gang (0-1) +4.5 vs. #6 The Popcorn Playas (0-1) – O/U 335.00

Coming off a brutal Week 1 loss, the Rat Gang looks to get back on track this week against yet another one of his largest rivals. Only problem with that is the injury bug hasn’t finished picking off WRs from his roster seemingly every week with T.Y. Hilton being the latest victim. The Playas are coming off a fairly meh Week 1 performance and could really use a respectable week. Not sure counting on 38 Special Teams (K + DEF) points every week is part of the #gameplan, but Curlis is The DFFL wildcard, bitches, so you never know what he has planned.

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